A possession is over when a team scores, an opponent gains possession (turns over to the opponents), or the ball is lost after a missed shot. Every game can be viewed as a collection of possessions, and there is always an opportunity to score in a possession. They generate more scoring opportunities, and fewer possessions tend to lead to a lower number.
This guide walks you through what to look for and how to decipher possession data when reading totals to spot value.
Possession Stats Can Be Used To Figure Out Game Tempo
Possession tempo is the number of possession opportunities available for scoring during a contest (in relation to the overall number of possession opportunities for the game). A quick pace produces more scoring chances, which can lead to a higher combined score.
Teams Often Are Compared By Their Overall Scoring And Defensive Efficiency
Percentages and scoring metrics are very important when determining scoring potential based solely on possession numbers themselves. All teams have different levels of efficiency in how they score and allow points on their possessions. For example, a team may have a high number of possessions, but relatively low levels of scoring (due to low offensive efficiency).
Therefore, if both teams have high offensive efficiency and play quickly, then the over should be preferred (due to the potential for a higher combined score). Conversely, if both teams have low offensive efficiency and play at a slower pace, then the under should be preferred (due to the lower potential combined score).
Making Adjustments Based on Game Situations
Although season averages can be useful, they do not tell the whole story for every game played. You will need to make adjustments based on particular situations.
Injuries and illness can dramatically change a team’s scoring dynamics at any given time, depending on players on the injured reserve list or unable to play at an elite level due to sickness or fatigue. The same goes for teams playing back-to-back games, as they can become fatigued, leading to fewer possessions. In addition, some coaches employ a strategy to control the game against stronger opponents, thereby creating fewer possessions.
Finding Value in Over/Under Totals
Once you have a solid understanding of pace and efficiency, you will have the ability to determine a projected total for a game. This is achieved by taking the same number of possessions from your expected number of possessions multiplied by their respective scoring efficiency rates combined.
Next, you compare your calculated projected total to the published odds from the sportsbook. If the difference jumps out to you as significant, then you would have found value. Using this approach helps keep your betting objective and allows you to use only data rather than relying on what the public thinks about a team when you play NBA odds today .
Wrapping Up
Analyzing possession data in relation to over-under totals will give you a distinct and tangible edge. You’ll be able to accurately predict outcomes based on combinations of pace, efficiency, and contextual factors such as where the game is being played and whether or not either team just came off a game on the previous two days of action. Implementing this methodology when evaluating your submissions is highly advised. This is a simple way to implement this methodology in your ongoing analysis of betting.